The Disappearing Future
September 1st, 2010 |
The futurists are screwed. Today I downloaded the Netflix iPhone app and sat at a table outside a local deli totally in awe that I could stream feature length movies, almost anywhere, on demand, to my phone — with pretty good quality. Are you kidding? That would have been unimaginable five years ago.
Writers are constantly challenged to come up with “gee whiz imagine that” future scenarios, which is becoming harder and harder to do. As a speechwriter. I’ve worked for a number of CEOs and other senior executives in the Silicon Valley and across the globe. Often, I am asked to come up with these “incredible future” scenarios for an executive keynote.
About a year ago I was called in to work on some futurist stuff for the CEO of a major company. The corporate communications team had done a pretty good job with the first draft, but it wasn’t futurey enough. For example, they had “Imagine you hear a song on the radio you like, but you don’t know who the artist is. You hold your phone up to the radio, it ‘recognizes’ the song and the artist and title appear on your screen.” Unfortunately, as you probably know, it exists (and did then). It’s called Shazam, and there’s even a free version. I can’t tell you what I did come up with because that work belongs to the client, but I will say it was a tough assignment.
Another time I was writing for the CTO of a semiconductor company, and as I worked on the speech (a keynote can take several weeks or months to write), a couple of our future scenarios popped up in the news and had to be scrapped. I couldn’t write fast enough to stay ahead of one life-changing development after another.
It’s no wonder people say they can’t keep up (with whatever). The pace is crazy. And I’m not going to speculate (right now at least) on what’s next.
| Sphere This |
One key characteristic of cyberpunk fiction, in my view, is that different levels and kinds of technology proliferate across different strata of the (usually fragmented) future society. Often the technology one group employs is a surprise to another, and I’m wondering if we are not going to reach that point soon. Not only will the cycle of technological progress continue to accelerate, the number of people producing new technology will multiply as the “flat” nature of the global economy becomes a tremendous incentive for local innovation. We already see an almost evolutionary process on the internet in which many, while searching for the next big idea, create memes which are lavished with attention only to be extinguished mere weeks later.
Comment by John Glass — September 1, 2010 @ 12:25 pm
I was amazed yesterday to find my wife perusing local bulletin boards and Craigslist posts to help her mother find a cat to adopt even though said mother lives 6,000 miles away. And then they discussed the matter at almost no cost over Skype. This sounds quite prosaic today, but 15 short years ago?
Rapid change is one thing, but the more interesting question is which technologies will prove utopian and which will become dystopian? Sand Hill Road will fund either kind, often in the absence of a convincing business model.
Comment by Martin Chorich — September 1, 2010 @ 12:46 pm
I’d speculate, but then again, I watch THX 1138 frame by frame. Know what I’m sayin’ ese?
Comment by Marc Nogle — September 2, 2010 @ 7:13 am
To go along with James Glass’ comment, an man much wiser than me said, “Any technology sufficiently advanced will appear as magic.”
I’m seeing a new magic trick almost weekly.
Comment by Sean Mullady — September 4, 2010 @ 5:15 pm