When “pitching” social media marketing and communications initiatives to management, there is a tendency to overestimate the potential response rate based on the sheer number of people on the Internet. Internet World Stats, for example, estimates as of March 31, 2009, there are 1,596,270,108 people online worldwide. That’s right, over 1.5 billion! According to the same data, there are 251,290,489 people online in North America. It stands to reason, then, that a North American social media campaign reaching just one per cent of those online would have a response rate of over 2.5 million people.

Therein lies the fallacy. We are accustomed to thinking of three per cent and four per cent as “small” (think profit margin, interest on a loan, or return on an investment.) But one per cent of a really big number is a really big number. And just because there are millions of people online does not ensure a million responses to our campaigns.

Remember, before there was an Internet, there were tens of millions of Americans and no aspect of any campaign (except maybe a Super Bowl commercial) even came close to reaching all of them. Simply because a marketing campaign is launched online does not guarantee a large number of respondents. Response rates are dictated by things like a compelling offer, targeting the right audience, and finding the right timing and medium, not by “throwing something against a wall of several hundred million people and hoping it sticks.”

Tags: Internet, statistics, unrealistic, estimates, social media, success